Monday, December 26, 2011

This is a game that I will get to enjoy live at Gillette Stadium. The 11-3 Patriots will host the 5-9 Miami Dolphins. Miami's record can be misleading, especially in this particular situation. The Patriots have had their troubles with the fish over the years. They have struggled against them in games where all odds were against the Dolphins. However, the Patriots did rout the Dolphins in the regular season opener, a game in which Tom Brady threw for 517 yards. With a win, the Pats will be one step closer to having home-field advantage and the AFC's number one seed.

When the Patriots have the ball, expect them to put up some big numbers. I don't think there are many teams that can successfully match up with all the play makers that the Patriots have. We saw this last week in Denver as the Broncos shadowed Gronkowski with double coverage all day, which left plenty of room for Aaron Hernandez to have a career game. But, this doesn't mean the Patriots offense is invincible. Tight outside coverage, a steady pass rush, and sound tackling can rattle any offense's rhythm. The Dolphins certainly have the talent to do just that. Guys like Jason Taylor and Carlos Dansby are potential problems for the Patriots, because they can really disrupt the timing of an offense. I don't think that the Miami defense poses a huge threat, but if the offensive line and Tom Brady aren't playing well, anything can happen.

When the Dolphins have the ball, the key for the Pats defense will be to prevent Reggie Bush from having the type of success he has had in recent games. He is coming off some impressive games with over 100 yards rushing in a few of them, and it seems he has found some consistency. Wide receiver Brandon Marshall will be a tough cover, but I think Belichick will try to minimize his chances of making big plays. This season, anyone has been able to throw on the Patriots, but the key for them will be playing good red zone defense, and executing on third down.

I think this one will be a battle because of the way Miami is playing, and because of the fact that they have caused problems for the Patriots in the past. Regardless, the Patriots offense is just too good to lose to a Dolphins team. The final score might be closer than most people expect.

My prediction is that the Patriots will win by 10 points.


Friday, December 23, 2011

Everyone who doesn't like Tim Tebow can now rejoice. The New England Patriots were able to defeat the Denver Broncos on the road in an impressive way. The final score was 41-23. But this was a very costly victory, because the Patriots lost defensive lineman Andre Carter due to injury, most probably for the rest of the season according to reports. They will certainly miss his presence, as Carter was the most consistent player for the Patriots defense all season, totaling 10 sacks. This means that other players like Mark Anderson will have to step up, and they showed signs of this as Anderson and others helped stop the Tebow train in its tracks. Not even Tim Tebow could pull off a miracle win or force overtime against the Patriots who seemed dominant after the first quarter. Tebow time never happened. Another win for New England will bring them a step closer to a first round bye and home field advantage against AFC teams in the playoffs. The Patriots are now 11-3, atop the AFC Conference due to Pittsburgh's loss against San Francisco. And despite the loss, Denver remains in the lead for the AFC West division title.

On offense, the Patriots did what they do best, score points. A banged up Denver secondary featuring three rookies helped Brady throw for 320 yards, two touchdowns, and zero interceptions. Although the Broncos were able to contain Rob Gronkowski pretty well, tight-end Aaron Hernandez had a career day, because Denver was double covering Gronkowski, which meant more room for Hernandez to make plays in the open field, an area where he does most of his damage. Hernandez had 9 receptions, 129 yards, and one touchdown. Stevan Ridley was impressive running for 65 yards on only 11 carries. Brady, Woodhead, and Green-Ellis each had one rushing touchdown. And finally, wide receiver Chad Ochocinco got on the board with his first touchdown catch of the season. Hopefully he can provide an extra target down field for Brady come playoff time. And kicker Stephen Gostowski added 2 field goals, which is how the Patriots were able to generate 41 points against a Denver defense that I knew they would be able to attack.

On defense, the Patriots could not have started off worse. Right out of the gate, Denver's top ranked rushing attack made the Patriots defense look like a high school team. But because the Pats offense kept answering the Broncos scoring, it would come down to who would play better defense and make less mistakes. The Broncos committed the cardinal sin of turning the ball over against New England in a game where they seemed to have the upper hand early. They had four total team fumbles, and lost possession three times, and this completely changed the momentum of the game. Because of all the turnovers, they were unable to find the rhythm they had in the first quarter, and all the time on the sideline for the Pats defense gave New England a chance to recover and get on the same page with their game plan. After Carter was out due to injury, the Patriots switched their defensive setup on the line and were able to adjust to the running game, allowing Denver to score only 10 points after the first quarter. Instead of playing the option opportunistically and situationally, players like Rob Ninkovich started going after Tim Tebow directly, even if he was going to pitch it to another player. Thus, they took him out of the running game, and this allowed the rest of the defense to focus on one ball carrier. With one player going right after him on every snap, Tebow did not have the time and space he would normally have, and because of this, the Patriots were able to cause turnovers, contain Denver's offense, and win the game.

Saturday, December 10, 2011

The New England Patriots will be on the road against the Washington Redskins. They have never defeated them in Washington, but this will be a great opportunity. The Patriots are coming off a win against the Colts while the Redskins look to rebound after a bad loss to the New York Jets. New England can clinch an AFC East division title and a playoff spot with a win and a Jets loss. If the Pats win, they will tie the Pittsburgh Steelers for the best record in the AFC. Considering this, they should have no problem making the playoffs ranked as one of the top seeds, because their remaining three week schedule is not very challenging. The Redskins on the other hand, at 4-8, will probably not make the playoffs even if they somehow win all of their remaining games. This game will be important for the Patriots if they wish to play at Gillette Stadium in the playoffs, instead of traveling on the road.

When the Patriots have the ball, they must keep a close watch on the two young outside pass rushers that the Redskins have. As with any other game, protecting Tom Brady and controlling the line of scrimmage will be key. I don't see any other major threats, but linebacker London Fletcher will make some plays. However, his play alone won't be enough to stop all the weapons at Tom Brady's disposal, including touchdown machine Rob Gronkowski. I would like to see the Patriots go to Aaron Hernandez a little bit more, because Gronkowski has been getting a lot of attention, especially in recent games. It wouldn't hurt to spread the ball around a little bit, because this would make it even harder for opposing defenses to find favorable matchups. This might be the day Gronkowski breaks the record for most touchdowns in a single season by a tight end all-time. One would think that since he has been getting the ball more and more, that defenses would try their best to contain him, but this has not been the case. Last week, the Colts allowed him to get three touchdowns. Furthermore, he was unaccounted for and wide open on one of them. Look for players like Wes Welker to come up big against a defense that allowed 34 points to a pretty bad Jets offense led by Mark Sanchez.

When the Redskins have the ball, quarterback Rex Grossman will either turn the ball over, or make some stupid decisions. Expect Washington to rely heavily on their young running back Roy Helu, who has had two consecutive one hundred yard performances. He will be tough to contain, but since the Patriots are good at stopping the run, and getting ahead early, this shouldn't be a huge problem. If they do get ahead early, the Redskins will be forced to play catchup with gunslinger Rex Grossman, who has caused turnovers throughout his entire career. But not all of the blame should go on Grossman, because offensive coordinator Kyle Shanahan is notorious for getting pass happy at odd times. I would expect the Pats to attack the vulnerable offensive line of the Redskins with Andre Carter and Mark Anderson, and this will allow guys like Kyle Arrington and Jerod Mayo to make plays because Grossman will be under pressure. And to add to the Redskins' frustrations, they will be without leading receiver Fred Davis, and valuable offensive lineman Trent Williams. These two players are arguably the best they have on offense, but both of them are out for the season due to repeated violations of the league's substance abuse policy.

Based on these things, Pats win.
The Patriots did what they had to do against the Colts, but they are really going to hear it from the coaching staff this week despite their 31-24 victory. In my opinion, playing hard for 60 minutes is the most valuable thing for a football team. Throughout the years, we have seen many upsets in this league. So, Bill Belichick was right to praise the inferior Colts prior to this game on Sunday, because the Patriots had to know that any team in the NFL has potential. The coaches did make them realize that the Colts have the talent to beat anyone, and the Patriots found out about this. Records don't mean much, because it all depends on who plays better on that given day. New England was playing very well on both sides of the ball until late in the game. It looked like it was going to be another blowout win, but Indianapolis made it interesting in the fourth quarter, with the help of a Patriots meltdown. The Patriots are now 9-3, and the Colts remain win-less at 0-12. These two teams are headed in opposite directions. Here are the things that led to these results.

It is necessary to understand some of the things Bill Belichick was trying to do. He was clearly experimenting with new players on defense. These players are either on special teams, or the practice squad, but they got a chance to start in this game because of these reasons. First of all, the Patriots don't have the best depth on defense because of all the injuries, so other people will be forced to step up to the challenge. Next, they were playing the Colts, and there is no chance a special teams guy like Matthew Slater will be the starting safety for the Pats in the playoffs against teams like Pittsburgh. Another reason for the new faces on defense was because several players, according to Belichick, showed interest in wanting to play on defense this week, so the coaching staff had more options than they normally would. Because of these things, new players were in roles that they regularly wouldn't be in, and this was a huge reason for their struggles on defense, and much of quarterback Dan Orlovsky's success.

The offense, and Tom Brady did play very well for about 45 minutes, but they couldn't get anything going when the defense needed some rest. Gronkowski had three touchdowns. His 13 touchdowns this season are tied for the most all time by a tight-end in NFL history. Green-Ellis also had a rushing score. This early scoring provided 28 points and Gostowski added a field goal to make it 31. However, the Patriots were outscored 21-0 in the fourth quarter, which is not a good sign, because they won't win by doing this against tougher teams. But there were some good things to take from this game, and many of them had something to do with the offense. Tom Brady didn't turn the ball over, had 2 touchdowns, a good completion rate, and a little under 300 yards. Wes Welker had yet another spectacular game, and Hernandez showed that he can still be a contributor. But the most important play that may have been overlooked was Deion Branch's onside kick recovery to save the game. This guy has proven to be reliable and he is the perfect example of a team player and a Patriot. Fans can only imagine what it would have been like if the Patriots managed to allow the Colts to get the ball back, score, and win the game.

As I previously mentioned, I didn't expect the Pats defense to play lights out with several inexperienced players starting. But I also didn't expect them to play as poorly as they did. Giving up 24 points to one of the worst offenses in the league is a concern. But everyone knows by now that the Patriots have a pretty bad defense. Hopefully, they can play a little better in the playoffs. The easiest way to do this would be by generating a pass rush, which they were able to do for a short period of time. Other than that, getting a little healthier, and just executing the game plan better would obviously help.


Saturday, November 26, 2011

New England will be on the road in Week 12 against the Philadelphia Eagles in the city of brotherly love. Injuries will be a big factor in this one, as both secondaries are banged up. As of now, many players on the Pats defense are questionable in terms of their availability for Sunday's game. These players include safety Pat Chung and cornerback Devin Mccourty. Defensive backs from the Eagles including Cromartie and Asomugha are also questionable to play. Quarterback Micheal Vick is doubtful with injured ribs. Considering these injuries to key players, health will play an important role in the outcome of this game.

The Eagles offense will have to put up some big numbers if they want to keep up with Tom Brady. They also need this win to stay alive in the playoff hunt. For the Patriots defense, it all boils down to execution. I'm sure the coaches will lead the players into the right direction, but will they be able to do what they have been doing over the last couple of weeks against the Jets and Chiefs? They must be able to collapse the pocket and make Vince Young uncomfortable. As a result of this, Young will probably make some bad decisions with the football. Hopefully, the Patriots can capitalize on that and cause turnovers and three and outs. One player the defense must neutralize is running back LeSean McCoy, who leads the league in most rushing categories. Look for Jerod Mayo to fill up the stat sheet with tackles, and I wouldn't be surprised if Arrington continues to impress. Controlling the line will be critical against Philadelphia's physical running game.

The special teams will need some attention in this game because both teams have an explosive and dangerous return team. The Eagles have Desean Jackson, while the Patriots have Julian Edelman. It will be interesting to see if the Patriots elect to kick to Jackson or not. They'll have to consider the weather conditions while they decide what to do. The same goes for the Eagles. Julian Edelman has definitely showed his talent on special teams, and recently, on defense too. He is the more complete player because of his tackling ability, but this doesn't mean that Jackson isn't a threat.

Look for the Patriots to have a pretty good day on offense against the Eagles defense. On paper, they look like the best defense in the league with 3 very good cornerbacks. But their defense as a whole has not lived up to its dream team potential. They have been pretty inconsistent all season, and have given up leads in the fourth quarter at home multiple times. In addition, two out of those three cornerbacks are questionable to play due to injuries. And if they do play, the Patriots will surely test those players who won't be 100 percent healthy. Look for Tom Brady to continue to spread the defense by passing to multiple receivers and backs. I think they will try to take away Gronkowski, since he has been so successful of late, so Deion Branch, Wes Welker, and Aaron Hernandez will most likely be facing man coverage for the most part of this game, which will increase their chances of success.

My prediction is that the Patriots will win by 3-10 points.
As expected, the Patriots were able to defeat the Kansas City Chiefs, despite a really slow start on offense. The final score was 34-3, and this was a good win for the Pats. They will look to continue this type of success against under-performing teams for the rest of the regular season, as they have the easiest remaining schedule in the NFL. And the quarterback competition doesn't really get too challenging either, as the Patriots still have to play teams like the Indianapolis Colts, led by quarterback Curtis Painter, who is in place of injured superstar Peyton Manning. This will give the defense a chance to get their confidence up, and to me its really a win-win situation, as the Patriots are likely to get the AFC's top playoff seed, which would give them home-field advantage until the Superbowl if they can get that far. People who say that bad quarterback competition will make the defense worse might be forgetting that this defense goes against Tom Brady in practice, who is no mediocre passer. In my opinion, they will not only get their confidence up against poor competition, but this will help them win as many games as possible, which in turn will help them in the playoffs since they will be playing at Gillette Stadium, which is their comfort zone. And take last season for an example, the Pats had one of the tougher schedules in the league, but they ended up losing in the first round against Mark Sanchez and the Jets. In this way, a harder regular season schedule doesn't mean anything in the playoffs, because well, the playoffs are the playoffs, not the regular season.

Now, its time to look into this win against the Chiefs. There were a lot of good things I saw and I expected that this would happen. However, the Pats will have to figure out how to get the offense going in the early part of the game. They were forced to punt the ball away way too many times early in this one, and they can't afford to do this against tougher teams with better offenses. Despite the slow start, the offense was able to redeem itself in the second half. Tom Brady was good with over 200 yards passing, 2 touchdowns, and 0 turnovers. Both of his touchdowns went to Rob Gronkowski, who once again was able to free himself from loose coverage down the field. Green-Ellis pitched in well as he ran for 81 yards on 20 carries. The running game was key in the 4th quarter as the Patriots offense was able to run out the clock by maintaining possession of the ball. New running back Vereen also looked good as he ran for a touchdown. Most of these things were expected for the offense as they were playing against an average defense without key players like safety Eric Berry. It's a good thing that the Patriots didn't underestimate them, as they will have to continue to stay motivated against some bad teams down the stretch of this regular season.

The Patriots special teams had one of their best games of the season. Versatile players like Julian Edelman stepped up in a big way. Edelman not only returned a punt for a touchdown, but he made some key tackles for the kicking teams. They will need his contribution against explosive returners like Desean Jackson of the Eagles. The defense also played well, and once again, the pass rush provided a chain reaction. Since the defense was able to get to Tyler Palko on numerous plays, he was rushed to make some poor decisions. Kyle Arrington had two interceptions, and he leads the league with seven on the season. Giving up only 3 points against any team is always a good sign. And the Patriots' performance on Monday night is another sign of good things to come.

Monday, November 7, 2011

The Patriots will face the New York Jets in New York during Week 10 of the NFL regular season. Not many times do the Pats go against New York teams back to back in the span of a single season. It is going to be quite interesting to see how this one plays out, and what might be even more interesting is seeing what New York Jets head coach will have up his sleeve before, during, and after the game. Rex Ryan is not shy to say the least. He believes his team has a chance to win every season, and I honestly don't blame him. If the Jest fly under the radar and somehow turn it up in the playoffs like they have been doing over the last few years, they have the same amount of chances to win a Superbowl as the undefeated Green Bay Packers.

I don't expect Q.B. Mark Sanchez to tear up the Patriots defense, but he will surely put up 20-25 points against the leagues worst defense. Stopping the running game and receivers including Santonio Holmes is going to be key for the Patriots defense, but nothing leads me to believe that they will be able to do either of these things. The Pats may have a chance if the defense can hold the Jets to field goals instead of touchdowns, which they were incapable of doing against the Giants in the 4th quarter. Players like corner back Kyle Arrington have been way too inconsistent to make me think that the defense will perform at a high level this Sunday.

A question has been asked several times by people around the NFL over the last few weeks? Is there now a "blueprint" for defenses on how to rattle Tom Brady and the offense? We have seen the Cowboys, Steelers, and the Giants manage to keep the Pats offense under control in consecutive weeks. I know that Rex Ryan is fully capable of doing the same thing, because he has proved this in the past. Only time will tell how the Pats will try to combat the schemes of opposing defenses. This is because recently, nothing they have tried has worked as good as it was in the beginning of the season when they were scoring 30 plus points on any defense.

Although schemes and other variables are always important, the Patriots biggest problem over the last 3 weeks has been overall execution. For example, we all know the following:

The Patriots offense is talented.
The Patriots defense is still good enough to win games.
The coaching and special teams are not areas of extreme concern, because they have been pretty average throughout this season.

Overall, we know these things are true. But the problem is inconsistency and a lack of execution. One week the defense under performs, while the other week it is surprisingly good. We know they are capable of doing it, they just haven't been able to execute the game plan consistently. As simple as this problem may seem, getting the job done is one of the more difficult things to do week in and week out in this league.

I don't think the Patriots will win this game judging from their play from previous weeks. And New York's recent impressive road win against Buffalo also leads me to believe that they can beat the Pats. But this doesn't mean the season is lost!

Jets 26, Patriots 21